Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 13 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Volpe homered to right (337 feet), Bellinger scored and Judge scored.4–3
- 2Marte singled to center, Moreno scored.4–0
- 2Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to center, Suárez scored.3–0
- 1Gurriel Jr. homered to left (399 feet), Marte scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML ARI +125 / NYY -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -135
- ARI +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.4 – 4.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +11 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +36 Elo | NYY 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 306.8 | Runs scored | 10.31st of 30 |
| 24th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.325th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +5.01st of 30 |
| 1st of 191–0 | Road vs home | 3–14th of 19 |
| 3rd of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 15245th of 30 |
| 5th of 301529 | Elo rating | 15353rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  ARI |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–76 | 89–83 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–47 | 60–75 |
| Underdog | 49–29 | 29–8 |
| Overs–unders | 96–65–1 | 95–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 3–4 NYY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.