Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Easton LucasPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe doubled to right, Wood scored.2–4
- 6Guerrero Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Straw scored on throwing error by shortstop Abrams, Guerrero Jr. second.1–4
- 6Abrams homered to right (386 feet).1–3
- 5Clement hit sacrifice fly to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.0–3
- 4Springer homered to left (368 feet).0–2
- 1Giménez singled to right, Santander scored, Giménez to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 50%
- ML WSH -110 / TOR -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -100
- WSH -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.3 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −3 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Easton Lucas (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +42 Elo | TOR 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−2.0 | Margin | −0.214th of 30 |
| 17th of 190–2 | Road vs home | 4–27th of 19 |
| 13th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 150416th of 30 |
| 25th of 301466 | Elo rating | 149321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 1–4 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | — | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | — |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–5 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.