Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Grichuk doubled to center, Hampson scored and Perdomo scored.6–4
- 6Lowe homered to right (397 feet).4–4
- 5Carroll homered to right (414 feet), Perdomo scored.4–3
- 3Carroll homered to right (380 feet).2–3
- 1García Jr. homered to right (392 feet), Lowe scored.1–3
- 1Abrams homered to right center (414 feet).1–1
- 1Naylor singled to center, Hampson scored, Naylor out stretching at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 59%
- ML ARI -160 / WSH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 55.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -145
- WSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.7 – 3.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −4 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +39 Elo | ARI 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 306.4 | Runs scored | 3.520th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.527th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −2.024th of 30 |
| 5th of 272–1 | Road vs home | 1–218th of 27 |
| 2nd of 301529 | Opponent Elo | 151212th of 30 |
| 5th of 301529 | Elo rating | 146425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–3 | 1–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 1–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | — |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 10–2 WSH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.