Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith singled to center, Betts scored, Edman to second.4–6
- 8Betts singled to center, Conforto scored.3–6
- 7Ruiz doubled to right, García Jr. scored.2–6
- 7Wood homered to center (395 feet), Rosario scored.2–5
- 3Lowe singled to right, García Jr. scored.2–3
- 3Ohtani homered to right (378 feet), Taylor scored.2–2
- 2Crews scored on error, Wood safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Rojas, Wood safe at second on error.0–2
- 2Crews grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, DeJong scored, Crews to second, Tena safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Betts, Tena safe at third on error.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML LAD -180 / WSH +150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 63.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -161
- WSH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | 0 | LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +96 Elo | LAD 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.818th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 5.123rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+2.0 | Margin | −1.322nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 3–317th of 29 |
| 2nd of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 15174th of 30 |
| 1st of 301565 | Elo rating | 146525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–4 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 8–4 WSH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.