Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting3-3, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Jack DreyerPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sosa grounded into fielder's choice to third, Kepler scored, Stott out at second.7–8
- 7Stott singled to right, Harper scored, Kepler to third.7–7
- 7Smith doubled to center, Betts scored.7–6
- 7T. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to right, Ohtani scored, Betts to third.6–6
- 7Betts doubled to center, Pages scored, Ohtani to third.5–6
- 5T. Hernández doubled to left, Edman scored.4–6
- 4T. Hernández homered to right (357 feet).3–6
- 3Castellanos homered to left (389 feet), Turner scored, Harper scored and Kepler scored.2–6
- 3Schwarber scored on Glasnow wild pitch, Harper to second on wild pitch by Glasnow, Turner to third on wild pitch by Glasnow.2–2
- 3Schwarber scored on Glasnow wild pitch, Harper to second on wild pitch by Glasnow, Turner to third on wild pitch by Glasnow.2–2
- 3Harper singled to left, Marchán scored, Turner to second, Schwarber to third.2–1
- 1T. Hernández homered to right (352 feet), Edman scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 53%
- ML LAD -125 / PHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 50.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.9 – 3.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +8 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +6 Elo | LAD 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 3rd of 302.7 | Runs allowed | 2.84th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.3 | Margin | +1.96th of 30 |
| 9th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 4–19th of 29 |
| 2nd of 301521 | Opponent Elo | 147726th of 30 |
| 1st of 301566 | Elo rating | 15324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–3 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–8 PHI in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.