Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- German MarquezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Max KeplerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Castellanos homered to center (414 feet).1–6
- 8Kepler homered to right (382 feet).1–5
- 7Schwarber homered to center (434 feet), Sosa scored.1–4
- 7Sosa doubled to center, Turner scored and Stott scored.1–2
- 6Goodman homered to center (405 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 72%
- ML COL +240 / PHI -310
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 62.9%, market 72.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -257
- COL +257 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 5.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +2 | COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +92 Elo | PHI 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 65.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 72.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 302.7 | Runs scored | 6.34th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.78th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 146925th of 30 |
| 29th of 301438 | Elo rating | 15285th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  COL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–80 | 79–87 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 58–68 |
| Underdog | 75–70 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders | 82–76 | 84–81–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–9 PHI in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.