Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Tommy EdmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-3
- Jesus LuzardoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Edman homered to right center (397 feet), Betts scored.2–3
- 7Marsh grounded out to second, Castellanos scored, Stott to second.0–3
- 7Stott singled to left, Kepler scored, Castellanos to third.0–2
- 1Turner scored on throwing error by pitcher Yamamoto.0–1
- 1Turner scored on throwing error by pitcher Yamamoto.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML LAD -135 / PHI +115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- PHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.0 – 3.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −4 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +25 Elo | LAD 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.57th of 30 |
| 6th of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 2.84th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+2.8 | Margin | +2.74th of 30 |
| 6th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 144830th of 30 |
| 1st of 301566 | Elo rating | 15334th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–2 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | 6–2 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | — | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 5–7 PHI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.