Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sosa doubled to center, Castellanos scored and Realmuto scored, Kepler to third.1–5
- 7Turner singled to center, Sosa scored.1–3
- 7Goodman homered to left center (370 feet).1–2
- 4Realmuto grounded out to catcher, Schwarber scored.0–2
- 4Schwarber doubled to left, Bohm scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 73%
- ML COL +260 / PHI -330
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 66.7%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -276
- COL +276 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.6 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +9 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +120 Elo | PHI 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 69.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 302.3 | Runs scored | 6.35th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.811th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +2.55th of 30 |
| 16th of 191–3 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 19 |
| 12th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 145727th of 30 |
| 29th of 301436 | Elo rating | 15304th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  COL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–80 | 79–87 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 58–68 |
| Underdog | 75–70 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders | 82–76 | 84–81–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–10 PHI in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.