Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Sean BouchardBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bouchard singled to left, Goodman scored, Toglia to second.1–3
- 8Realmuto scored on Kinley wild pitch, Stott to second on wild pitch by Kinley.0–3
- 8Realmuto scored on Kinley wild pitch, Stott to second on wild pitch by Kinley.0–3
- 7Schwarber homered to right center (444 feet).0–2
- 5Harper doubled to right, Schwarber scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 68%
- ML COL +200 / PHI -240
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.6%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -212
- COL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 5.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −30 | COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 1.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +82 Elo | PHI 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 302.0 | Runs scored | 6.05th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.28th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +2.84th of 30 |
| 16th of 191–4 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 19 |
| 7th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 145330th of 30 |
| 29th of 301435 | Elo rating | 15324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | — | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–11 PHI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.