Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Enrique HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-3
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Conforto homered to right center (397 feet).3–1
- 2E. Hernández homered to left (356 feet), Muncy scored.2–1
- 1Bohm grounded out to second, Schwarber scored, Turner to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 50%
- ML LAD -110 / PHI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 47.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -100
- LAD -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −6 | LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +15 Elo | LAD 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 6th of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 2.73rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+2.3 | Margin | +2.42nd of 30 |
| 19th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 29 |
| 3rd of 301521 | Opponent Elo | 146428th of 30 |
| 1st of 301565 | Elo rating | 15344th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–3 | 6–1 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 6–1 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | — | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 5–8 PHI in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.