Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Jose HerreraBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Alex CallBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thomas tripled to left, Naylor scored.4–5
- 6Ruiz singled to left, Crews scored.3–5
- 5Smith singled to center, Herrera scored, Perdomo to third.3–4
- 3DeJong doubled to left, Bell scored, Call thrown out at home.2–4
- 2Abrams hit sacrifice fly to left, DeJong scored.2–3
- 2Herrera homered to right center (384 feet).2–2
- 1Call singled to right, García Jr. scored, Wood to second, Lowe thrown out at home.1–2
- 1Lowe doubled to right, Abrams scored, García Jr. to third.1–1
- 1Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 62%
- ML ARI -180 / WSH +150
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 55.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -161
- WSH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +16 | ARI: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +36 Elo | ARI 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 306.0 | Runs scored | 3.622nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.324th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.625th of 30 |
| 8th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 29 |
| 4th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 15166th of 30 |
| 5th of 301529 | Elo rating | 146425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–4 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | — |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–3 WSH in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.