Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching2.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7T. Hernández singled to right, Ohtani scored, Edman to third.6–5
- 7Pages homered to left (366 feet).5–5
- 3Call hit sacrifice fly to left, Bell scored.4–5
- 3García Jr. doubled to right, Lowe scored, Bell to third.4–4
- 1García Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Ruiz scored.4–3
- 1Bell grounded out to pitcher, Wood scored, Lowe to second, Ruiz to third.4–2
- 1Abrams homered to right (379 feet).4–1
- 1T. Hernández homered to center (397 feet), Edman scored.4–0
- 1Edman tripled to right, Ohtani scored and Betts scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -200 / WSH +165
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.5%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -177
- WSH +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.4 – 4.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −6 | LAD: Landon Knack: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +74 Elo | LAD 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 11th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.417th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–4 | Road vs home | 5–316th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 15262nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301560 | Elo rating | 147125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–6 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 8–6 WSH in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.