Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tawa homered to left center (438 feet).2–6
- 2Busch homered to left center (367 feet).1–6
- 2Suzuki homered to center (408 feet), Berti scored.1–5
- 2Tucker grounded out to pitcher, Amaya scored, Berti to second.1–3
- 1Busch singled to right, Tucker scored.1–2
- 1Tucker tripled to second, Happ scored.1–1
- 1Carroll homered to center (426 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML ARI +110 / CHC -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 51.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.6 – 3.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −6 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +8 Elo | CHC 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 6.21st of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.72nd of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 5–211th of 30 |
| 7th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15281st of 30 |
| 4th of 301533 | Elo rating | 15315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–10 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 7–3 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–7 CHC in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.