Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Alek ThomasBatting1-1, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thomas singled to right, Carroll scored and Tawa scored, Perdomo to third.2–5
- 7Naylor singled to center, Carroll scored, Grichuk to third.2–3
- 6Tawa hit sacrifice fly to center, Naylor scored.2–2
- 5Tawa scored, Perdomo to second on wild pitch by Peralta.2–1
- 5Tawa scored on Peralta wild pitch, Perdomo to second on wild pitch by Peralta.2–1
- 1Contreras homered to left center (375 feet), Turang scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 50%
- ML MIL -110 / ARI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -100
- MIL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | 0 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +5 Elo | ARI 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 5–420th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15154th of 30 |
| 6th of 301528 | Elo rating | 15278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–11 ARI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.