Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Contreras homered to left (374 feet).7–1
- 7Yelich homered to right center (409 feet).6–1
- 7Turang homered to center (444 feet).5–1
- 3Doyle homered to left (398 feet).4–1
- 3Frelick singled to right, Contreras scored, Hoskins to second.4–0
- 3Contreras singled to right, Chourio scored.3–0
- 3Chourio doubled to center, Collins scored and Ortiz scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 60%
- ML MIL -165 / COL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 62.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -149
- COL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 5.2 – 4.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −2 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +87 Elo | MIL 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.325th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.4 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.2 | Margin | −1.323rd of 30 |
| 25th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 1–224th of 30 |
| 10th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149520th of 30 |
| 8th of 301524 | Elo rating | 143229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–8 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 0–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–8 COL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.