Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Elvin RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lux singled to right, Espinal scored.11–7
- 7Dunn doubled to left, Contreras scored and Frelick scored, Bauers to third.10–7
- 7Candelario hit sacrifice fly to center, Espinal scored, De La Cruz to third.10–5
- 7De La Cruz singled to center, Friedl scored and Trevino scored, De La Cruz to second, Espinal to third.9–5
- 5Frelick singled to right, Chourio scored, Yelich scored on fielding error by right fielder Fraley and Contreras scored on error, Frelick to third.7–5
- 5Yelich singled to right, Turang scored, Chourio to second.7–2
- 4Dunn hit sacrifice fly to left, Frelick scored.7–1
- 4Trevino homered to left center (383 feet), Dunn scored.7–0
- 4Encarnacion-Strand homered to center (451 feet).5–0
- 2Friedl homered to right (378 feet), Trevino scored.4–0
- 2Dunn homered to left center (384 feet).2–0
- 1Lux doubled to right, De La Cruz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML CIN +100 / MIL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −21 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Elvin Rodriguez: team allows 1.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +42 Elo | MIL 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.423rd of 30 |
| 5th of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −3.030th of 30 |
| 20th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 4–110th of 29 |
| 13th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15138th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301491 | Elo rating | 15248th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–4 | 1–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 1–7 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 0–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–21 MIL in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 28.