Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Candelario doubled to right, Steer scored.2–3
- 8Encarnacion-Strand hit sacrifice fly to center, Friedl scored, Steer to third.1–3
- 5Turang homered to center (418 feet), Mitchell scored.0–3
- 2Mitchell singled to left, Frelick scored, Hoskins to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 54%
- ML CIN +110 / MIL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −4 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +36 Elo | MIL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.421st of 30 |
| 5th of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 7.030th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −3.630th of 30 |
| 19th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 3–111th of 28 |
| 16th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15168th of 30 |
| 21st of 301492 | Elo rating | 15238th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–4 | 1–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 1–6 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 0–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–20 MIL in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 27.