Kansas City Royals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 11Turang reached on bunt single to pitcher, Dunn scored, Ortiz to second.2–3
- 10Chourio doubled to left, Turang scored.2–2
- 10Massey reached on infield single to second, Tolbert scored.2–1
- 2Biggio singled to left, Massey scored.1–1
- 1Chourio homered to left center (389 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML KC -105 / MIL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 3.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +6 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +39 Elo | MIL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.015th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 9.430th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −5.430th of 30 |
| 7th of 191–1 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 19 |
| 14th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 15215th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Elo rating | 152210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 0–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–5 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.