Kansas City Royals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-4
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yelich homered to right center (429 feet).0–5
- 6Capra grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Contreras scored, Hoskins out at second.0–4
- 6Hoskins singled to center, Yelich scored, Contreras to second, Contreras safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Isbel.0–3
- 3Yelich grounded into fielder's choice to second, Turang scored on error, Chourio out at second, Yelich safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Witt Jr..0–2
- 3Haase homered to left (419 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML KC +105 / MIL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 53.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −5 | KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Chad Patrick (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +26 Elo | MIL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.819th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 11.830th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −8.030th of 30 |
| 1st of 191–0 | Road vs home | 0–118th of 19 |
| 14th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15274th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 151910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  KC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 93–72 | 86–77 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–41 | 40–54 |
| Underdog | 55–31 | 46–23 |
| Overs–unders | 70–94–1 | 88–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–4 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.