Kansas City Royals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kris BubicPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Elvin RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Biggio singled to left, Canha scored.11–1
- 7Chourio doubled to center, Collins scored.10–1
- 7Pasquantino grounded out to first, India scored on error, Witt Jr. to second, Witt Jr. safe at third on throwing error by first baseman Hoskins.10–0
- 7Witt Jr. singled to right, Garcia scored, India to third.9–0
- 7India singled to left, Canha scored and Melendez scored, Garcia to third.8–0
- 7Garcia walked, Massey scored, Canha to second, Melendez to third.6–0
- 7Perez homered to left (418 feet).5–0
- 2Garcia homered to center (428 feet).4–0
- 1Renfroe singled to left, Witt Jr. scored and Massey scored.3–0
- 1Massey hit a ground rule double, India scored, Witt Jr. to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML KC +100 / MIL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −5 | KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Elvin Rodriguez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +42 Elo | MIL 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 12.030th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−2.0 | Margin | −7.330th of 30 |
| 12th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15364th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15238th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  KC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 93–72 | 86–77 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–41 | 40–54 |
| Underdog | 55–31 | 46–23 |
| Overs–unders | 70–94–1 | 88–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–4 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.