Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting1-4
- Nick LodoloPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Frelick singled to right, Chourio scored, Contreras to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML CIN +100 / MIL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 54.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −28 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Nestor Cortes: team allows 1.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +28 Elo | MIL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.817th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 8.230th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −4.330th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15188th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Elo rating | 15228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 0–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–19 MIL in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 26.