Athletics at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chase DollanderPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Butler singled to center, Andujar scored, Muncy to third.5–12
- 8Goodman singled to left, Doyle scored and Tovar scored, McMahon to second.4–12
- 8Tovar singled to left, Bouchard scored and Freeman scored, Doyle to second.4–10
- 8Doyle singled to left, Beck scored, Bouchard to second, Freeman to third.4–8
- 5Butler homered to center (435 feet).4–7
- 4McMahon singled to right, Tovar scored.3–7
- 4Andujar singled to right, Soderstrom scored, Wilson thrown out at third.3–6
- 3Freeman hit sacrifice fly to right, Bryant scored.2–6
- 2Tovar doubled to left, Doyle scored.2–5
- 2Doyle doubled to left, Moniak scored and Freeman scored.2–4
- 1Bryant singled to left, Tovar scored.2–2
- 1Doyle homered to left (385 feet).2–1
- 1Soderstrom homered to right (386 feet), Rooker scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- COL 52%
- ML ATH +100 / COL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- COL: Elo 53.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -109
- ATH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 5.2 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −29 | +2 | ATH: Joey Estes: team allows 1.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Dollander (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | COL +23 Elo | COL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 2.330th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.616th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −2.430th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304–2 | Road vs home | 0–228th of 29 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150316th of 30 |
| 27th of 301455 | Elo rating | 142929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–4 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 6–2 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
