Athletics at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting3-5
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Urshela doubled to right, Wilson scored.6–3
- 11Wilson singled to right, Bleday scored and Langeliers scored.5–3
- 8Beck singled to left, Freeman scored.3–3
- 6Andujar doubled to left, Soderstrom scored on throwing error by shortstop Tovar, Andujar to third.3–2
- 4Farmer doubled to right, Toglia scored.2–2
- 4Wilson homered to left center (414 feet).2–1
- 1McMahon hit sacrifice fly to right, Tovar scored.1–1
- 1Soderstrom singled to right, Bleday scored, Langeliers to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 51%
- ML ATH -115 / COL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- ATH: Elo 50.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATH -104
- COL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.3 – 4.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | 0 | ATH: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +5 Elo | ATH 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.3 | Runs scored | 1.830th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.9 | Margin | −2.227th of 30 |
| 7th of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 15206th of 30 |
| 27th of 301451 | Elo rating | 143429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | — |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 1–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 4–2 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.
