Athletics at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- German MarquezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8McMahon homered to left center (400 feet).7–4
- 7Langeliers homered to center (429 feet), Bleday scored.7–3
- 7Rooker homered to center (425 feet).5–3
- 6Wilson doubled to left, Langeliers scored and Soderstrom scored.4–3
- 6Soderstrom doubled to right, Bleday scored, Langeliers to third.2–3
- 4Butler scored on throwing error by catcher Goodman.1–3
- 4Butler scored on throwing error by catcher Goodman.1–3
- 3Goodman grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Doyle scored, McMahon out at second, Tovar to third.0–3
- 2Bouchard homered to left (367 feet), Farmer scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- COL 50%
- ML ATH -110 / COL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- COL: Elo 51.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -100
- ATH -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.8 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +11 | ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +13 Elo | COL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.6 | Runs scored | 2.030th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −2.328th of 30 |
| 7th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 0–126th of 29 |
| 14th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150913th of 30 |
| 27th of 301453 | Elo rating | 143229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–4 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–2 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.
