Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-3, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Friedl singled to center, Fraley scored.2–8
- 7Chourio homered to left center (415 feet).1–8
- 5Steer homered to left (379 feet).1–7
- 4Chourio homered to left (360 feet), Haase scored and Turang scored.0–7
- 4Dunn sacrificed to first, Bauers scored.0–4
- 4Frelick scored, Bauers to third on passed ball by Wynns.0–4
- 4Frelick scored, Bauers to third on passed ball by Wynns.0–4
- 3Yelich singled to right, Turang scored.0–2
- 3Chourio hit sacrifice fly to right, Dunn scored, Turang to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML CIN +115 / MIL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +12 | CIN: Carson Spiers: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +71 Elo | MIL 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.818th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 6.930th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −3.130th of 30 |
| 15th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 4–211th of 29 |
| 10th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15119th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Elo rating | 15228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–4 | 1–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 1–8 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 0–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–21 MIL in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 29.