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Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast

FinalFanDuel SN WI, MLB.TV, FanDuel SN WIX, DBACKS.TV

Away

Brewers

8-6

7–0

at

Home

Diamondbacks

7-7

MIL 42%ARI 58%

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Chase Field · FanDuel SN WI, MLB.TV, FanDuel SN WIX, DBACKS.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.

ARI75%50%75%MILStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Brewers
  • Brice TurangBatting3-4, 2 RBI
  • Jose QuintanaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks
  • Geraldo PerdomoBatting1-3
  • Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Contreras reached on infield single to third, Turang scored.7–0
  • 9Yelich grounded out to second, Capra scored, Turang to third.6–0
  • 9Turang singled to right, Mitchell scored and Ortiz scored, Turang to second, Capra to third.5–0
  • 5Contreras hit sacrifice fly to center, Chourio scored.3–0
  • 5Yelich grounded out to second, Turang scored, Chourio to third.2–0
  • 4Frelick doubled to right, Hoskins scored.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Diamondbacks 58%

LeanMiss
MIL 42%ARI 58%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
ARI 58%
ML MIL +130 / ARI -155
Pre-line forecast
ARI 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
ARI 52%
Ratings vs. market
−6.1 pts
ARI: Elo 52.2%, market 58.3%
Fair odds
ARI -140
MIL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIL 4.4 – 5.1 ARI
Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILARIWhy
Team rating15261529Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+4−2MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsARI +15 EloARI 52.2%
Market-implied ratingsARI 54.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastARI 54.2%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastARI 58.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatARI
5th of 305.2Runs scored5.54th of 30
29th of 305.7Runs allowed4.518th of 30
20th of 30−0.5Margin+1.08th of 30
3rd of 307–3Last 106–48th of 30
18th of 302–4Road vs home4–317th of 30
24th of 301489Opponent Elo15125th of 30
8th of 301526Elo rating15295th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BrewersDiamondbacks
14501500155016001650league averageAprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMILARI
Run line4–96–7
Last 104–65–5
Favorite4–65–6
Underdog0–31–1
Overs–unders6–78–5
Overs–unders, last 104–66–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIL 5–10 ARI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.