Baltimore Orioles at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Holliday lined out to left, Mullins scored on throwing error by left fielder Gurriel Jr., O'Neill out at third in rundown.3–4
- 5Naylor doubled to right, Hampson scored and Smith scored.2–4
- 3Carroll homered to right center (401 feet).2–2
- 1Naylor grounded into double play, first to shortstop to pitcher, Carroll scored, Smith out at second, Perdomo to third.2–1
- 1Mullins singled to right, O'Hearn scored and Rutschman scored, Westburg to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 51%
- ML BAL -115 / ARI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 44.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -104
- ARI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.8 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +5 | BAL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +38 Elo | ARI 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.45th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15145th of 30 |
| 11th of 301518 | Elo rating | 15258th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 5–2 ARI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.