Baltimore Orioles at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Josh NaylorBatting2-4
- Zac GallenPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Mountcastle singled to center, Rutschman scored and Westburg scored.5–1
- 5Mullins grounded out to second, Henderson scored, Westburg to second, Rutschman to third.3–1
- 4Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Smith scored.2–1
- 3Rutschman singled to right, Henderson scored.2–0
- 1O'Hearn homered to right (388 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML BAL +100 / ARI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 52.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- BAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | 0 | BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +17 Elo | ARI 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.85th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.122nd of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.710th of 30 |
| 11th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 2–219th of 29 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15126th of 30 |
| 11th of 301516 | Elo rating | 15287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 4–2 ARI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.