Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting1-4
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Devers doubled to right, Rafaela scored.3–0
- 5Rafaela singled to center, Campbell scored.2–0
- 2Story homered to left center (394 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML BOS -125 / BAL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 43.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.9 – 3.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +13 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +48 Elo | BAL 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 6.45th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.88th of 30 |
| 16th of 191–4 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 19 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149420th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301492 | Elo rating | 15227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 11–16 BAL in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 27.