Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Sean NewcombPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting2-4, 4 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran singled to left, González scored.5–8
- 9González doubled to left, Campbell scored.4–8
- 8Holliday singled to left, Carlson scored, Urías to second.3–8
- 8Mullins singled to center, Mateo scored and Mountcastle scored, Carlson to second.3–7
- 8Kjerstad singled to left, O'Neill scored, Mountcastle to third.3–5
- 3Campbell grounded out to second, Refsnyder scored, Story to third.3–4
- 2Duran tripled to center, Campbell scored and González scored.2–4
- 1Mullins doubled to center, Mountcastle scored and O'Neill scored.0–4
- 1Mountcastle singled to left, Rutschman scored, Mountcastle to second, O'Neill to second, O'Neill safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Duran.0–2
- 1O'Neill singled to left, Westburg scored, Rutschman to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML BOS +120 / BAL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -130
- BOS +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.5 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −13 | BOS: Sean Newcomb: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +33 Elo | BAL 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 302.8 | Runs scored | 6.05th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.58th of 30 |
| 18th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149021st of 30 |
| 20th of 301493 | Elo rating | 15219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  BOS |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–87 | 85–77 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–56 | 54–62 |
| Underdog | 45–31 | 31–15 |
| Overs–unders | 81–78–2 | 90–70–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 11–15 BAL in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 26.