Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Heston KjerstadBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pasquantino singled to right, Isbel scored, Melendez scored and Witt Jr. scored.2–8
- 8Isbel sacrificed, Garcia scored, Melendez to second.2–5
- 8Garcia doubled to left, Canha scored.2–4
- 4Garcia singled to center, Perez scored and Biggio scored.2–3
- 2Kjerstad scored on error, Mountcastle safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Garcia, Mountcastle safe at second on error.2–1
- 2Kjerstad singled to left, O'Hearn scored, Kjerstad to second, O'Neill thrown out at home.1–1
- 1Perez doubled to left, Witt Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 50%
- ML BAL -110 / KC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- KC: Elo 51.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -100
- BAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 3.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +3 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +7 Elo | KC 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.817th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.316th of 30 |
| 10th of 292–2 | Road vs home | 1–219th of 28 |
| 21st of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 151510th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 150017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 9–5 KC in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.