Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Alex BregmanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carlson hit sacrifice fly to left, Holliday scored.8–4
- 9Bregman doubled to right, Devers scored.8–3
- 7Casas homered to left center (377 feet), Bregman scored.7–3
- 4Urías singled to center, Kjerstad scored.5–3
- 4Duran hit sacrifice fly to left, Abreu scored.5–2
- 3Westburg singled to center, Mullins scored, Rutschman to second.4–2
- 2Campbell homered to left (389 feet), Abreu scored.4–1
- 1Mullins homered to right (374 feet).2–1
- 1Bregman homered to left (397 feet), Devers scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML BOS +110 / BAL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- BAL: Elo 56.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.6 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −5 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +42 Elo | BAL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 5.37th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.010th of 30 |
| 10th of 192–4 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 19 |
| 16th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149420th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Elo rating | 152011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 1–5 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–5 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 12–16 BAL in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 28.