Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7O'Neill tripled to center, Westburg scored and Mullins scored.8–1
- 6Witt Jr. homered to left (399 feet).6–1
- 6Holliday singled to center, Kjerstad scored and Urías scored, Sánchez to third.6–0
- 6Urías reached on infield single to second, Mountcastle scored, Kjerstad to third.4–0
- 6Kjerstad singled to center, Mullins scored, Mountcastle to second.3–0
- 2Sánchez singled to center, Mountcastle scored and O'Neill scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML BAL -105 / KC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- KC: Elo 50.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.7 – 3.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −2 | BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC 0 Elo | KC 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.411th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.613th of 30 |
| 14th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 29 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15167th of 30 |
| 11th of 301514 | Elo rating | 150317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 9–6 KC in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.