Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting2-4
- Cade PovichPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Kris BubicPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mountcastle scored.1–4
- 7Mountcastle scored.1–4
- 2Fermin singled to left, Garcia scored, Fermin out stretching at second.0–4
- 1Massey doubled to right, Canha scored and Perez scored.0–3
- 1Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to right, Witt Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 50%
- ML BAL -110 / KC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- KC: Elo 51.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -100
- BAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 3.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | 0 | BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +13 Elo | KC 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.014th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.416th of 30 |
| 8th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 29 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15146th of 30 |
| 11th of 301518 | Elo rating | 150018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–2 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 10–6 KC in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.