Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ortiz singled to right, Frelick scored and Dunn scored.17–2
- 9Dunn singled to center, Contreras scored on error, Dunn safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Moniak, Frelick safe at third on error.15–2
- 9Yelich homered to center (465 feet), Chourio scored.14–2
- 9Ortiz scored on error and Turang scored on error, Chourio safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Halvorsen, Chourio safe at second on error.12–2
- 5Mitchell reached on infield single to first, Frelick scored.10–2
- 5Hoskins hit sacrifice fly to center, Yelich scored, Frelick to third.9–2
- 5Chourio homered to left center (413 feet), Ortiz scored and Turang scored.8–2
- 4Doyle singled to left, Bryant scored.5–2
- 3McMahon homered to center (432 feet).5–1
- 3Contreras homered to right center (408 feet), Chourio scored.5–0
- 3Chourio doubled to second, Ortiz scored and Turang scored.3–0
- 3Turang singled to center, Dunn scored on error, Turang safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Doyle, Ortiz safe at third on error.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 58%
- ML MIL -155 / COL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -140
- COL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 5.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +4 | MIL: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +74 Elo | MIL 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.128th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −1.830th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–3 | Road vs home | 1–329th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 30 |
| 8th of 301526 | Elo rating | 143029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–8 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 0–3 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–8 COL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.