Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting4-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Veen doubled to right, Doyle scored.2–7
- 8Doyle doubled to left, Bouchard scored, Moniak scored and Toglia scored.2–6
- 8Toglia doubled to left, McMahon scored, Bouchard to third.2–3
- 8Collins grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Chourio scored, Contreras out at second, Yelich to third.2–2
- 7Doyle singled to center, Moniak scored.1–2
- 4Contreras doubled to left, Yelich scored.1–1
- 1Doyle homered to left (391 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML MIL -125 / COL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- COL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 5.4 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −3 | MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +78 Elo | MIL 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.029th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 6.029th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −3.030th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 15th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 1–429th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150118th of 30 |
| 6th of 301529 | Elo rating | 142729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–8 | 3–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 0–3 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–8 COL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.