Baltimore Orioles at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-4
- Dean KremerPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Josh NaylorBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Naylor singled to left, Smith scored.0–9
- 8Perdomo homered to right center (399 feet).0–8
- 5Tawa singled to left, Thomas scored and McCarthy scored.0–7
- 5Naylor homered to right (381 feet).0–5
- 5Smith homered to right center (416 feet), Perdomo scored.0–4
- 3Carroll homered to center (413 feet).0–2
- 1Naylor hit sacrifice fly to left, Carroll scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML BAL +105 / ARI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 53.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 4.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −9 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +25 Elo | ARI 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.35th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 3–321st of 30 |
| 16th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15135th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–6 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 5–3 ARI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.