Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Perdomo scored.4–5
- 9McCarthy singled to right, Carroll scored, Perdomo to third.4–4
- 9Carroll doubled to center, Hampson scored and Thomas scored.4–3
- 9Thomas tripled to center, Moreno scored.4–1
- 9Contreras doubled to center, Chourio scored.4–0
- 6Chourio homered to left center (448 feet).3–0
- 2Ortiz grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Frelick scored, Mitchell out at second, Hoskins to third.2–0
- 2Hoskins singled to center, Contreras scored, Frelick to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 62%
- ML MIL +150 / ARI -180
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -161
- MIL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 5.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +4 | MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · ARI: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +5 Elo | ARI 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 4–422nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15135th of 30 |
| 5th of 301529 | Elo rating | 15267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–9 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–10 ARI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.