Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suzuki homered to center (440 feet).11–13
- 8Tucker homered to right (387 feet), Happ scored.11–12
- 8Kelly homered to center (401 feet), Hoerner scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.11–10
- 8Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (416 feet), Grichuk scored and Naylor scored.11–7
- 8Grichuk doubled to left, Perdomo scored on error and Thomas scored on error, Grichuk safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Happ.8–7
- 8Perdomo reached on infield single to shortstop, McCarthy scored, Thomas to third.6–7
- 8Suárez homered to center (458 feet), Grichuk scored, Naylor scored and Gurriel Jr. scored.5–7
- 7Busch singled to left, Tucker scored.1–7
- 7Happ homered to right center (381 feet), Hoerner scored, Crow-Armstrong scored and Kelly scored.1–6
- 5Carroll singled to center, Moreno scored.1–2
- 2Kelly homered to center (409 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 50%
- ML ARI -110 / CHC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 50.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -100
- ARI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.8 – 5.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −7 | ARI: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +2 Elo | CHC 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.92nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +1.72nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–3 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 30 |
| 8th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15291st of 30 |
| 4th of 301535 | Elo rating | 15306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–9 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–6 CHC in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.