Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Iglesias grounded into fielder's choice to catcher, Machado scored, Bogaerts out at second.4–10
- 8Arraez homered to right (356 feet).4–9
- 8Tatis Jr. homered to left center (384 feet), Díaz scored.4–8
- 8Amaya doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.4–6
- 7Sheets singled to right, Arraez scored and Machado scored.3–6
- 7Tatis Jr. scored on Pearson wild pitch, Machado to second on wild pitch by Pearson, Arraez to third on wild pitch by Pearson.3–6
- 7Tatis Jr. scored on Pearson wild pitch, Machado to second on wild pitch by Pearson, Arraez to third on wild pitch by Pearson.3–6
- 6Heyward reached on infield single to shortstop, Sheets scored, Iglesias to second, Bogaerts to third.3–3
- 6Iglesias reached on infield single to pitcher, Machado scored, Bogaerts to second, Sheets to third.3–2
- 4Crow-Armstrong doubled to right, Hoerner scored.3–1
- 4Busch homered to right center (397 feet), Turner scored.2–1
- 3Tatis Jr. homered to left center (386 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 57%
- ML CHC +125 / SD -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- SD: Elo 53.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SD -135
- CHC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.4 – 4.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −8 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +27 Elo | SD 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.4 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 2.72nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.4 | Margin | +1.92nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Road vs home | 10–01st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 149024th of 30 |
| 4th of 301533 | Elo rating | 15482nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–7 | 11–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–2 | 7–3 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 13–5 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 8–8 SD in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.