San Diego Padres at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting3-5
- Randy VasquezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4
- Osvaldo BidoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Sheets hit sacrifice fly to center, Bogaerts scored.2–1
- 3González singled to center, Bogaerts scored, Machado to third.1–1
- 2Urías hit sacrifice fly to center, Langeliers scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 57%
- ML SD +120 / ATH -145
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.6 pts
- ATH: Elo 41.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- ATH -130
- SD +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 5.0 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +8 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +57 Elo | SD 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −1.325th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 1–430th of 30 |
| 11th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301542 | Elo rating | 145527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–5 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–1 ATH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 8.