San Diego Padres at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Soderstrom homered to right (389 feet).5–4
- 7Tatis Jr. homered to left (406 feet).5–3
- 4Butler reached on infield single to shortstop, Wilson scored, Muncy to third.4–3
- 4Muncy doubled to left, Andujar scored, Wilson to third.4–2
- 3Soderstrom homered to right (385 feet).4–1
- 3Machado doubled to center, Arraez scored.4–0
- 1Cronenworth homered to right center (395 feet), Machado scored.3–0
- 1Machado doubled to center, Arraez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 58%
- ML SD -155 / ATH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- SD: Elo 63.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -140
- ATH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.6 – 3.9 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −10 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +95 Elo | SD 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.114th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 6.228th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.8 | Margin | −2.129th of 30 |
| 14th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 0–329th of 29 |
| 4th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 149322nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301545 | Elo rating | 145227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–0 ATH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.