San Diego Padres at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.0 IP, 9 ER, 4 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bleday homered to right (357 feet).4–10
- 3Urshela doubled to left, Wilson scored.4–9
- 3Wilson singled to left, Bleday scored on fielding error by left fielder González and Andujar scored on error, Wilson to second.4–8
- 2Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to right, Maldonado scored, Tatis Jr. to third.4–6
- 1Muncy singled to left, Urshela scored.3–6
- 1Urshela doubled to left, Wilson scored and Andujar scored.3–5
- 1Andujar singled to center, Bleday scored.3–3
- 1Bleday doubled to center, Butler scored and Soderstrom scored.3–2
- 1Gurriel scored on error, Iglesias safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Urshela, Cronenworth safe at third on error.3–0
- 1Gurriel doubled to center, Bogaerts scored.2–0
- 1Machado homered to right (389 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 50%
- ML SD -110 / ATH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- ATH: Elo 43.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ATH -100
- SD -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +26 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +49 Elo | SD 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.115th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 6.129th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −2.030th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 6th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 0–430th of 30 |
| 6th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301546 | Elo rating | 145228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–4 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–0 ATH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.