Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-4
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Padres- Jose IglesiasBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Heyward singled to right, Machado scored.0–6
- 4Tatis Jr. grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Iglesias scored, Díaz out at second, Lockridge to third.0–5
- 1Iglesias doubled to center, Gurriel scored and González scored.0–4
- 1Gurriel singled to left, Machado scored, González to second.0–2
- 1González singled to left, Arraez scored, Machado to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SD 69%
- ML COL +205 / SD -250
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- SD: Elo 70.6%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- SD -218
- COL +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +10 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +152 Elo | SD 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 69.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 2.92nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 9–01st of 30 |
| 9th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149421st of 30 |
| 29th of 301427 | Elo rating | 15462nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–10 | 10–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 3–8 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 12–16 SD in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 28.