Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Kyle FarmerBatting3-4
- German MarquezPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sheets homered to right (371 feet).0–8
- 6Tatis Jr. homered to center (411 feet).0–7
- 5Iglesias reached on infield single to third, Machado scored, Bogaerts to second, Sheets to third.0–6
- 5Machado hit a ground rule double, Tatis Jr. scored.0–5
- 5Díaz scored on throwing error by catcher Goodman, Tatis Jr. stole second.0–4
- 5Díaz scored on throwing error by catcher Goodman, Tatis Jr. stole second.0–4
- 5Díaz singled to center, Iglesias scored and Heyward scored.0–3
- 5Iglesias singled to right, Bogaerts scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SD 66%
- ML COL +180 / SD -215
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- SD: Elo 67.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- SD -191
- COL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 4.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +124 Elo | SD 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 65.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.33rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.3 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 30 |
| 16th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 29th of 301430 | Elo rating | 15432nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–8 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 12–14 SD in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 26.