Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Michael ConfortoBatting2-4
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoerner singled to right, Tucker scored, Workman to third.4–2
- 7Crow-Armstrong homered to center (412 feet).3–2
- 6Muncy hit sacrifice fly to right, Conforto scored, Smith to third.2–2
- 6Busch homered to right (403 feet).2–1
- 3Crow-Armstrong homered to right (370 feet).1–1
- 2E. Hernández singled to left, Conforto scored, Smith to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 67%
- ML CHC +195 / LAD -235
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.1%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -207
- CHC +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.5 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −5 | CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +50 Elo | LAD 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.6 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.4 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–3 | Road vs home | 7–12nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 15146th of 30 |
| 4th of 301531 | Elo rating | 15571st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–7 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–2 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–4 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 8–9 LAD in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.