Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Marlins- Rob BrantlyBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Edwards walked, Conine scored, Hicks to second, Sanoja to third.6–4
- 5Wagaman scored on Rodriguez wild pitch, Stowers to second on wild pitch by Rodriguez.6–3
- 5Wagaman scored on Rodriguez wild pitch, Stowers to second on wild pitch by Rodriguez.6–3
- 5Naylor homered to right (417 feet).6–2
- 4Brantly singled to left, Sanoja scored.5–2
- 4Perdomo singled to center, Carroll scored.5–1
- 4Carroll singled to right, Tawa scored.4–1
- 3Smith doubled to left, Perdomo scored.3–1
- 1Wagaman hit a ground rule double, Edwards scored, Norby to third.2–1
- 1Smith homered to right (370 feet).2–0
- 1Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to right, Carroll scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML ARI -150 / MIA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 58.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −12 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +61 Elo | ARI 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 305–3 | Road vs home | 6–624th of 30 |
| 7th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 4th of 301533 | Elo rating | 146126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–9 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 8–6 MIA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.