Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Matt MervisBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lowe grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wood scored, Ruiz out at second.6–7
- 7Ruiz singled to left, Young scored, Wood to third.5–7
- 6Stowers doubled to center, Edwards scored.4–7
- 6Rosario singled to left, Ruiz scored, Lowe to second.4–6
- 5Conine doubled to right, Stowers scored and Wagaman scored.3–6
- 5Wagaman doubled to left, Edwards scored, Stowers to third.3–4
- 4Bell singled to left, Ruiz scored and Wood scored, Lowe to second.3–3
- 4Lowe walked, Call scored, Ruiz to second, Wood to third.1–3
- 3Pauley scored on Williams wild pitch, Mervis to second on wild pitch by Williams, Edwards to third on wild pitch by Williams.0–3
- 3Pauley scored on Williams wild pitch, Mervis to second on wild pitch by Williams, Edwards to third on wild pitch by Williams.0–3
- 3Stowers hit sacrifice fly to right, Hicks scored.0–2
- 2Mervis homered to right (380 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 57%
- ML WSH +120 / MIA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- MIA: Elo 50.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MIA -130
- WSH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +13 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +6 Elo | MIA 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.622nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–3 | Road vs home | 4–421st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 30 |
| 24th of 301472 | Elo rating | 146226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–6 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 14–13 MIA in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 27.