Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Matt MervisBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4
- Tylor MegillPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mervis homered to right (355 feet), Bride scored.5–0
- 9Bride singled to right, Edwards scored.3–0
- 5Fortes singled to left, Bride scored, Mervis to third.2–0
- 5Mervis singled to center, Stowers scored, Bride to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 66%
- ML MIA +185 / NYM -225
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 64.6%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -197
- MIA +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.0 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +9 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +105 Elo | NYM 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 66.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.116th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 2.51st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 20th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
| 10th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 148726th of 30 |
| 26th of 301460 | Elo rating | 15325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–5 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 11–20 NYM in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 31.