Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-3
- Valente BellozoPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting3-4
- Kodai SengaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taylor singled to center, Siri scored.0–2
- 3Soto doubled to center, Lindor scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 71%
- ML MIA +230 / NYM -285
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 62.0%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -244
- MIA +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 2.8 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +5 | MIA: Valente Bellozo: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +85 Elo | NYM 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 66.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.722nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 2.41st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.28th of 30 |
| 8th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 29 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149322nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301463 | Elo rating | 15285th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–3 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 2–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 2–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 11–18 NYM in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 29.